Biennial elections will be held on June 10 for 57 Rajya Sabha seats, while by-elections for each of the Telangana and Orissa seats will be held on May 30 and June 13, respectively, with a total of 59 contests. 15 states next month.
Out of 59, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently has 25 seats and its ally Janata Dal-United has two and AIADMK has three. After an independent addition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) currently has 31 seats out of 59. Holding these 31 seats will be very challenging for the NDA as it could lose 7-9 seats this time around, according to Assembly estimates. .
On the other hand, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) could reach 13 – the Congress (8), the DMK (3), and the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (one each). So obviously, UPA can get 2-4 seats this time.
As far as other parties are concerned, at present Samajwadi Party has three, Biju Janata Dal four, Bahujan Samaj Party two and Telangana State Samiti three and YSR Congress, Akali Dal and Rashtriya Janata Dal one each. Out of these 15, this time they can choose three more.
In Uttar Pradesh, polling will be held on the 11th. After their defeat in the recent assembly elections, the Congress and the BSP will suffer. At present, the BSP has two seats and the Congress one, but this time, the BJP could win two of the three.
With these two seats, the BJP can send seven members to the Rajya Sabha and the SP can retain three seats. Both the BJP and the SP will do their best to win the remaining seats, but the BJP may pick it up because of their aggressive tactics.
Voting is scheduled for six seats in Maharashtra. The BJP has three and the ruling Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress have one each. In terms of numbers, the BJP could lose to the ruling coalition if it fights the elections unitedly and ropes some independent MLAs.
Out of the six seats to be voted in Tamil Nadu, DMK and AIADMK have three seats each, but this time, the ruling DMK could choose an additional seat, due to good numbers, taking the number to four.
The NDA is going to lose one seat in Bihar in terms of numbers. As before, the BJP can easily send two members to the Rajya Sabha, while its ally JD-U, with fewer MLAs, can win only one seat. RJD is going to make another profit by winning two times this time.
Andhra Pradesh will vote for four seats. In a big push, the BJP, which includes three, could lose everything to the ruling YSRCP because of its brutal majority.
In Karnataka, where four seats are up for grabs, the BJP can send two to the Rajya Sabha and the Congress can comfortably manage one seat. But for the fourth seat, neither the BJP, nor the Congress, nor the Janata Dal-Secular has enough numbers, so it remains to be seen who will win.
In Rajasthan, all four seats are held by the BJP, but this time it could lose three. Based on the number of MLAs, the BJP can win one, the ruling Congress two, but with the help of independent candidates it can also win a third seat.
In Madhya Pradesh again, there will be no loss, no gain for both the Congress and the BJP, meaning the BJP will win two and the Congress one.
Of the three seats in Orissa that are set to go to polls on June 10, the ruling BJD could retain all three seats based on numbers. It is likely to win the by-elections to be held on June 13, due to the resignation of its current member Subhash Chandra Singh.
In Telangana, the ruling TRS could retain two seats and win a by-election.
In Chhattisgarh, the term of one BJP and one Congress member is coming to an end and the ruling Congress wants to win both the seats.
In Punjab, the term of both Congress and Akali MPs is coming to an end and the Aam Aadmi Party is likely to win both with its overwhelming majority.
In Jharkhand, where two seats will go to the polls, the results could be surprising. Currently, both the seats are held by the BJP, but given the current situation, the ruling JMM-Congress-RJD alliance and the BJP can win one seat each.
In Haryana, out of two seats, BJP and Congress can win one seat each. The ruling BJP will win the only seat in Uttarakhand.
However, the BJP will try its best not to increase their numbers in the upper house, as it will have a direct impact on next month’s presidential and vice-presidential elections.